Today: AA 5405 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet today AA 5405 CLT 09:25 → SGF 10:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 5466 CLT 16:30 → SGF 17:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5405 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:25	SGF 10:54	12%	3%	0.4%	75%
AA 5407 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:25	SGF 14:43	16%	4%	0.4%	70%
AA 4060 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 11:25	SGF 12:47	16%	3%	0.4%	91%
MQ 4209 Envoy	CLT 09:36	SGF 10:52	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 4017 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:15	SGF 21:34	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 5466 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:30	SGF 17:47	23%	4%	0.4%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON