Today: AA 3187 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–50%.

Safest bet today AA 3187 CLT 07:44 → SJU 11:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3004 CLT 20:28 → SJU 00:23 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3187 American	CLT 07:44	SJU 11:34	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 783 American Flight history →	CLT 11:03	SJU 14:50	21%	4%	0.3%	85%
AA 2830 American Flight history →	CLT 19:08	SJU 22:59	28%	9%	1.0%	67%
F9 3004 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:28	SJU 00:23	50%	17%	1.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON