Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2070 CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2563 CLT 19:21 → SLC 21:57 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2070 Delta Flight history →	CLT 18:10	SLC 20:29	16%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	CLT 09:00	SLC 11:20	19%	4%	0.3%	83%
AA 1895 American	CLT 09:26	SLC 11:48	21%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2563 American	CLT 19:21	SLC 21:57	25%	8%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 09:43 → ATL 11:00DL 3174	56m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	6h 07m	83%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON