Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 33–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1950 CLT 13:42 → SYR 15:36 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2482 CLT 17:06 → SYR 19:06 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1950 American	CLT 13:42	SYR 15:36	33%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 1976 American Flight history →	CLT 20:58	SYR 22:53	35%	9%	0.2%	52%
AA 1236 American Flight history →	CLT 20:52	SYR 22:53	35%	9%	0.3%	77%worse than usual
AA 2759 American Flight history →	CLT 16:38	SYR 18:36	38%	9%	0.2%	59%
AA 2482 American	CLT 17:06	SYR 19:06	40%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON