Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2469 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2469 CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 346 CMH 13:05 → ATL 14:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2469 Delta Flight history →	CMH 06:00	ATL 07:35	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	CMH 10:00	ATL 11:35	6%	3%	1.2%	88%
WN 1685 Southwest	CMH 09:00	ATL 10:42	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2909 Delta Flight history →	CMH 07:05	ATL 08:42	9%	3%	1.2%	93%
DL 3165 Delta Flight history →	CMH 08:11	ATL 09:45	9%	3%	1.2%	91%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	CMH 12:48	ATL 14:26	10%	4%	0.8%	88%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	CMH 14:43	ATL 16:22	11%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	CMH 17:06	ATL 18:46	14%	5%	0.8%	84%
DL 2200 Delta Flight history →	CMH 17:16	ATL 19:00	15%	5%	0.8%	89%
DL 2280 Delta Flight history →	CMH 18:39	ATL 20:34	15%	5%	0.8%	70%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	CMH 20:08	ATL 22:00	16%	7%	0.8%	75%
WN 346 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 13:05	ATL 14:35	17%	5%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON