Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 265 at 08:00, 11%.

Safest bet today WN 265 CMH 08:00 → AUS 10:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4028 CMH 13:58 → AUS 16:09 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 265 Southwest	CMH 08:00	AUS 10:09	11%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 1178 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 10:50	AUS 12:35	21%	4%	0.3%	85%
WN 4977 Southwest	CMH 15:40	AUS 17:48	33%	8%	0.3%	no record
DL 4028 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 13:58	AUS 16:09	33%	12%	0.7%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON