Today: WN 4975 at 13:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–21%.

Safest bet today WN 4975 CMH 13:20 → BNA 13:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5058 CMH 17:45 → BNA 18:05 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4975 Southwest	CMH 13:20	BNA 13:51	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 4297 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 13:00	BNA 13:20	11%	2%	0.1%	77%
WN 1240 Southwest	CMH 21:00	BNA 21:30	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 816 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 21:25	BNA 21:50	12%	4%	0.4%	81%
WN 5058 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 17:45	BNA 18:05	21%	3%	0.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON