Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4642 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4642 CMH 06:00 → BOS 08:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3470 CMH 15:40 → BOS 17:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4642 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:00	BOS 08:06	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 5663 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:13	BOS 08:20	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:11	BOS 13:15	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
YX 4524 Republic	CMH 11:59	BOS 14:17	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 4533 Republic	CMH 17:10	BOS 19:39	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:40	BOS 19:50	19%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 3470 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 15:40	BOS 17:47	24%	7%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON