Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4554 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4554 CMH 05:50 → BWI 07:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1122 CMH 17:40 → BWI 19:06 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4554 Southwest	CMH 05:50	BWI 07:17	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4376 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 05:45	BWI 07:05	3%	1%	0.2%	97%
WN 1177 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 10:00	BWI 11:20	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 203 Southwest	CMH 11:35	BWI 13:02	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1034 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 17:35	BWI 19:00	15%	4%	0.6%	54%
WN 1122 Southwest	CMH 17:40	BWI 19:06	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON