Today: AA 3206 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet today AA 3206 CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OH 5098 CMH 17:46 → CLT 19:14 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3206 American Flight history →	CMH 06:09	CLT 07:39	7%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 2558 American	CMH 06:14	CLT 07:37	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5144 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 09:14	CLT 10:59	9%	6%	1.1%	93%
AA 987 American	CMH 08:07	CLT 09:42	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 5134 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 15:44	CLT 17:31	10%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 3217 American Flight history →	CMH 10:09	CLT 11:35	11%	4%	0.5%	87%
AA 2395 American Flight history →	CMH 11:10	CLT 12:42	14%	6%	0.4%	88%
AA 5117 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 17:26	CLT 19:12	15%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 1937 American	CMH 15:31	CLT 16:58	15%	6%	1.3%	no record
OH 5096 PSA	CMH 11:47	CLT 13:15	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
OH 5098 PSA	CMH 17:46	CLT 19:14	20%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON