Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:46 pm at Columbus); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1184 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 15:55	DAL 17:25	18%	3%	0.3%	63%
WN 952 Southwest	CMH 19:10	DAL 20:52	21%	5%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CMH 16:15 → MDW 16:30WN 1199	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 20:00 → DAL 22:20WN 2867	7h 05m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	CMH 17:35 → BWI 19:00WN 1034	2h 13m Baltimore	BWI 21:13 → DAL 23:41WN 991	7h 06m	95%	75%
Southwest Details →	CMH 17:45 → BNA 18:05WN 5058	3h 30m Nashville	BNA 21:35 → DAL 23:36WN 533	6h 51m	100%	71%
Southwest Details →	CMH 20:10 → MDW 20:25WN 1200	55m Chicago	MDW 21:20 → DAL 23:41WN 2868	4h 31m	80%	67%
Delta Details →	CMH 17:06 → ATL 18:47DL 2892	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 19m	94%	65%
Southwest Details →	CMH 20:35 → STL 21:00WN 2614	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:41WN 4056	4h 06m	77%	58%
Southwest Details →	CMH 16:25 → MCO 18:45WN 4918	1h 50m Orlando	MCO 20:35 → DAL 22:23WN 1565	6h 58m	91%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CMH 16:25 → MCO 18:45WN 4918	50m Orlando	MCO 19:35 → DAL 21:20WN 1419	5h 55m	62%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON