Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3861 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3861 CMH 06:00 → DCA 07:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5135 CMH 16:38 → DCA 18:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3861 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:00	DCA 07:25	13%	3%	0.5%	94%
AA 5051 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 06:00	DCA 07:41	14%	5%	1.5%	74%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:39	DCA 14:18	23%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 4405 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:10	DCA 13:37	25%	7%	0.7%	62%
WN 1228 Southwest	CMH 12:32	DCA 14:00	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
YX 4633 Republic	CMH 16:42	DCA 18:17	26%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 5089 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 09:35	DCA 11:13	26%	10%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
OH 5629 PSA	CMH 09:55	DCA 11:21	28%	10%	1.3%	no record
YX 4747 Republic	CMH 19:58	DCA 21:33	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 1185 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 13:45	DCA 15:00	30%	6%	0.6%	72%
AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:30	DCA 21:00	30%	10%	0.7%	64%
AA 5135 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 16:38	DCA 18:17	30%	12%	1.2%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON