Today: WN 1186 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet today WN 1186 CMH 05:55 → DEN 07:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1389 CMH 17:10 → DEN 18:18 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1186 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 05:55	DEN 07:00	2%	1%	0.1%	97%
WN 1247 Southwest	CMH 06:30	DEN 07:36	3%	1%	0.1%	no record
UA 728 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	DEN 10:14	9%	4%	0.2%	86%
WN 1250 Southwest	CMH 12:15	DEN 13:19	10%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 779 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 12:15	DEN 13:15	10%	3%	0.1%	88%
WN 921 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 19:00	DEN 20:10	12%	3%	0.5%	73%
WN 513 Southwest	CMH 18:50	DEN 19:53	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1693 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 16:47	DEN 18:03	20%	5%	0.8%	72%
UA 1389 United Flight history →	CMH 17:10	DEN 18:18	21%	4%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON