Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3418 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3418 CMH 05:48 → DFW 07:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1929 CMH 19:44 → DFW 21:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3418 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 05:48	DFW 07:40	10%	3%	0.3%	92%
AA 2380 American Flight history →	CMH 07:13	DFW 09:01	12%	6%	0.6%	89%
AA 3173 American	CMH 07:58	DFW 09:50	14%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 1279 American Flight history →	CMH 11:46	DFW 13:25	19%	8%	1.2%	80%
AA 1492 American Flight history →	CMH 14:42	DFW 16:30	22%	9%	1.2%	75%
AA 2337 American Flight history →	CMH 01:04	DFW 02:26	26%	8%	0.7%	66%
AA 1929 American	CMH 19:44	DFW 21:36	30%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON