tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:09 am at Columbus); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: DL 5812 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet today DL 5812 CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3867 CMH 18:44 → DTW 19:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
DL 5812 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → CMH 08:15 DTW 09:22 5% 2% 0.1% 95%
DL 5810 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → CMH 12:05 DTW 13:16 5% 2% 0.1% 91%
YX 5859 Republic CMH 12:02 DTW 13:16 5% 2% 0.1% no record
DL 5774 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → CMH 14:07 DTW 15:20 5% 2% 0.1% 88%
YX 5661 Republic CMH 14:06 DTW 15:20 7% 2% 0.1% no record
OO 3885 SkyWest CMH 10:33 DTW 11:41 10% 4% 0.2% no record
DL 3739 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → CMH 10:31 DTW 11:36 10% 4% 0.2% 88%
DL 3782 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → CMH 18:47 DTW 20:02 20% 7% 0.2% 90%
OO 3867 SkyWest CMH 18:44 DTW 19:53 21% 7% 0.3% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON