Today: UA 3480 at 11:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet today UA 3480 CMH 11:35 → EWR 13:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2065 CMH 16:39 → EWR 18:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3480 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:35	EWR 13:28	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:15	EWR 15:08	14%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 3710 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:00	EWR 19:00	18%	6%	1.0%	64%
UA 2065 United	CMH 16:39	EWR 18:23	30%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON