Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:41 pm at Columbus); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 18:14, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 18:14 → ORD 18:13UA 1182	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	7h 20m	95%	72%
United Details →	CMH 17:55 → ORD 18:34UA 545	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813	6h 04m	88%	64%
Delta Details →	CMH 18:39 → ATL 20:34DL 2280	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 18m	93%	62%
American Details →	CMH 18:19 → MIA 21:02AA 4085 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Miami	MIA 22:15 → IAH 23:59AA 2230	6h 40m	91%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON