Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1191 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 1191 CMH 06:45 → LAS 08:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1255 CMH 20:01 → LAS 21:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1191 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 06:45	LAS 08:00	3%	1%	0.1%	96%
WN 1253 Southwest	CMH 06:50	LAS 08:07	4%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2571 Southwest	CMH 13:25	LAS 14:40	10%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 1192 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 15:25	LAS 16:45	11%	4%	0.5%	68%
WN 1255 Southwest	CMH 20:01	LAS 21:14	13%	4%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CMH 06:55 → BNA 07:15WN 4477	51m Nashville	BNA 08:06 → LAS 10:13WN 579	6h 18m	96%	86%
American Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:00AA 4487 · flown by Republic	48m Chicago	ORD 06:48 → LAS 08:42AA 1592	6h 12m	94%	84%
Southwest Details →	CMH 20:35 → STL 21:00WN 2614	55m St Louis	STL 21:55 → LAS 23:25WN 3936	5h 50m	82%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON