tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:40 pm at Columbus); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: American via O'Hare, leaving 21:06, 52% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1686 American Flight history → CMH 18:00 LAX 19:44 25% 8% 0.5% 74%
AA 1360 American CMH 19:01 LAX 20:49 25% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 19:20 → MSP 20:27DL 2113 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 7h 33m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:55 → ORD 18:34UA 545 2h 56m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661 9h 14m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → CMH 18:14 → ORD 18:13UA 1182 2h 05m Chicago ORD 20:18 → LAX 22:55UA 2499 7h 41m 91% 65%
DeltaDetails → CMH 18:39 → ATL 20:34DL 2280 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → LAX 00:50 +1DL 8783 9h 11m 94% 61%
AmericanDetails → CMH 18:00 → PHX 19:09AA 1689 1h 29m Phoenix PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204 7h 07m 91% 55%
AmericanDetails → CMH 18:19 → MIA 21:02AA 4085 · flown by Envoy 1h 18m Miami MIA 22:20 → LAX 00:48 +1AA 669 9h 29m 93% 55%
AmericanDetails → CMH 21:06 → ORD 21:25AA 4288 · flown by Envoy 1h 05m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 6h 46m 86% 52%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 20:10 → MDW 20:25WN 1200 1h 10m Chicago MDW 21:35 → LAX 23:55WN 3364 6h 45m 81% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CMH 20:35 → STL 21:00WN 2614 55m St Louis STL 21:55 → LAX 23:50WN 2269 6h 15m 63% 34%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 19:55 → HOU 21:35WN 1190 55m Houston HOU 22:30 → LAX 23:56WN 4748 7h 01m 57% 20%
AlaskaDetails → CMH 18:07 → SEA 20:15AS 450 54m Seattle SEA 21:09 → LAX 23:43AS 524 8h 36m 32% 11%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON