Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1314 at 05:20, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 1314 CMH 05:20 → MCO 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2758 CMH 20:59 → MCO 23:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1314 Southwest	CMH 05:20	MCO 07:40	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1193 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 05:10	MCO 07:20	5%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1257 Southwest	CMH 10:45	MCO 13:07	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1249 Southwest	CMH 13:35	MCO 15:56	19%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 4918 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 16:25	MCO 18:45	28%	13%	0.9%	62%
WN 1261 Southwest	CMH 19:00	MCO 21:21	30%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 4629 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 19:35	MCO 21:50	30%	13%	0.8%	69%
F9 2758 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 20:59	MCO 23:29	37%	14%	2.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON