Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1263 CMH 08:41 → MDW 09:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1200 CMH 20:10 → MDW 20:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1263 Southwest	CMH 08:41	MDW 09:05	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4386 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 11:55	MDW 12:10	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 1197 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 09:00	MDW 09:10	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 980 Southwest	CMH 12:35	MDW 13:00	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1571 Southwest	CMH 15:50	MDW 16:15	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1199 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 16:15	MDW 16:30	9%	3%	0.5%	72%
WN 1200 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 20:10	MDW 20:25	13%	5%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON