Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2403 CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2113 CMH 19:20 → MSP 20:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2403 Delta Flight history →	CMH 07:00	MSP 08:01	5%	1%	0.3%	96%
DL 884 Delta	CMH 06:55	MSP 08:00	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 2772 Delta Flight history →	CMH 10:53	MSP 11:55	6%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2550 Delta Flight history →	CMH 14:00	MSP 15:07	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2113 Delta Flight history →	CMH 19:20	MSP 20:27	13%	4%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON