Today: UA 3524 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–28%.

Safest bet today UA 3524 CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 5370 CMH 19:52 → ORD 20:17 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3524 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:09	2%	2%	0.2%	94%
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:00	3%	2%	0.2%	95%
YX 4615 Republic	CMH 05:24	ORD 05:56	3%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 3429 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:00	ORD 07:39	6%	3%	0.2%	88%
AA 4041 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:49	ORD 07:30	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
UA 3484 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:20	ORD 17:01	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 466 United Flight history →	CMH 07:07	ORD 07:29	10%	4%	0.5%	81%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:46	ORD 07:09	11%	3%	0.5%	78%
AA 4455 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 20:59	ORD 21:45	11%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 3465 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:33	ORD 17:06	12%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 2653 United	CMH 08:31	ORD 08:54	12%	4%	0.4%	no record
YX 3716 Republic	CMH 12:33	ORD 13:05	12%	3%	0.2%	no record
MQ 3815 Envoy	CMH 14:10	ORD 14:46	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3961 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 13:55	ORD 14:29	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 622 United Flight history →	CMH 11:03	ORD 11:39	14%	5%	0.3%	89%
AA 3572 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 08:29	ORD 09:10	14%	4%	0.5%	76%
UA 3444 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:54	ORD 20:35	14%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 4954 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 14:45	ORD 15:27	14%	7%	0.8%	73%
AA 4953 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 10:26	ORD 11:05	14%	6%	0.3%	91%
OO 6311 SkyWest	CMH 10:16	ORD 10:40	14%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 4950 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 15:47	ORD 16:29	16%	6%	0.7%	82%
AA 4288 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 21:06	ORD 21:26	18%	5%	0.7%	50%
YX 4691 Republic	CMH 19:04	ORD 19:36	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 493 United Flight history →	CMH 14:19	ORD 14:55	19%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 545 United Flight history →	CMH 17:55	ORD 18:34	22%	6%	0.6%	49%
UA 1293 United	CMH 14:28	ORD 14:44	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1182 United Flight history →	CMH 17:59	ORD 18:34	25%	7%	0.6%	42%
OO 5370 SkyWest	CMH 19:52	ORD 20:17	28%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON