Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 31–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1405 CMH 19:10 → PHL 20:56 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3294 CMH 15:15 → PHL 16:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1405 American	CMH 19:10	PHL 20:56	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2905 American Flight history →	CMH 13:01	PHL 14:40	31%	9%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
AA 5210 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 15:10	PHL 16:46	31%	13%	2.0%	62%
AA 2397 American Flight history →	CMH 18:14	PHL 19:57	35%	10%	0.6%	66%
AA 3294 American	CMH 15:15	PHL 16:57	35%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON