Today: AA 1399 at 18:04 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–31%.

Safest bet today AA 1399 CMH 18:04 → PHX 19:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1268 CMH 17:35 → PHX 18:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1399 American	CMH 18:04	PHX 19:35	20%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 1958 American Flight history →	CMH 21:17	PHX 22:00	21%	8%	0.4%	88%
AA 1689 American Flight history →	CMH 18:00	PHX 19:09	21%	6%	0.4%	85%
WN 1202 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 15:10	PHX 16:15	29%	5%	0.2%	60%
WN 1268 Southwest	CMH 17:35	PHX 18:45	31%	6%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON