Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:55 am at Columbus); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 450 Alaska Flight history →	CMH 18:07	SEA 20:15	26%	5%	0.5%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 19:20 → MSP 20:27DL 2113	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	7h 38m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	CMH 12:30 → JFK 14:35DL 5649 · flown by Republic	2h 21m New York	JFK 16:56 → SEA 20:28DL 740	10h 58m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 12:05 → DTW 13:16DL 5810 · flown by Republic	3h 30m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	9h 37m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CMH 14:00 → MSP 15:07DL 2550	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	9h 48m	99%	77%
United Details →	CMH 11:03 → ORD 11:39UA 622	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660	8h 06m	99%	75%
American Details →	CMH 12:17 → PHX 13:00AA 1958	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 14:35 → SEA 17:44AA 4035 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	91%	74%
United Details →	CMH 16:33 → ORD 17:07UA 3465 · flown by Republic	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 20:05 → SEA 22:56UA 2820	9h 23m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	CMH 17:06 → ATL 18:47DL 2892	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	9h 53m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 19:31 → SFO 21:37UA 2861	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → SEA 01:15 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest	8h 44m	69%	44%
United Details →	CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa	51m Houston	IAH 19:55 → SEA 22:42UA 2456	8h 41m	71%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON