Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1597 CMH 07:00 → SFO 09:06 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest UA 2861 CMH 19:31 → SFO 21:37 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 5% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1597 United Flight history →	CMH 07:00	SFO 09:06	14%	5%	0.5%	75%
UA 1354 United	CMH 15:30	SFO 17:57	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2861 United Flight history →	CMH 19:31	SFO 21:37	21%	8%	0.7%	5%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CMH 07:05 → STL 07:30WN 1207	1h 00m St Louis	STL 08:30 → SFO 10:49WN 4931	6h 44m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	CMH 05:55 → DEN 07:00WN 1186	1h 35m Denver	DEN 08:35 → SFO 10:12WN 4303	7h 17m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142	1h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	7h 32m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON