Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:22 am at Colorado Springs); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Today: WN 2773 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet today WN 2773 COS 10:10 → DEN 11:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4719 COS 17:07 → DEN 18:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2773 Southwest	COS 10:10	DEN 11:00	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
UA 5400 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 10:23	DEN 11:38	15%	7%	0.2%	88%
WN 4325 Southwest Flight history →	COS 11:10	DEN 12:05	16%	2%	0.1%	71%
UA 4677 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:45	DEN 08:52	17%	6%	0.2%	94%worse than usual
OO 6081 SkyWest	COS 12:10	DEN 13:19	17%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 4725 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 08:45	DEN 10:02	21%	8%	0.2%	85%
UA 1610 United	COS 13:31	DEN 14:40	21%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 5634 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 09:20	DEN 10:33	21%	8%	0.2%	85%
OO 4691 SkyWest	COS 08:53	DEN 10:07	22%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 4675 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 11:31	DEN 12:45	23%	8%	0.2%	82%
UA 730 United Flight history →	COS 13:30	DEN 14:24	24%	4%	0.2%	69%
UA 5391 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 18:32	DEN 19:45	26%	8%	0.7%	72%
WN 1280 Southwest	COS 17:00	DEN 17:50	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
OO 5371 SkyWest	COS 08:04	DEN 08:21	26%	8%	0.2%	no record
OO 4690 SkyWest	COS 14:56	DEN 15:46	27%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 1222 Southwest Flight history →	COS 16:55	DEN 17:45	31%	6%	0.1%	38%
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 15:02	DEN 16:15	31%	9%	0.2%	66%
UA 4719 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 17:07	DEN 18:20	36%	10%	0.3%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON