Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6408 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 6408 COS 05:35 → DFW 08:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1170 COS 16:04 → DFW 19:02 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6408 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 05:35	DFW 08:37	15%	11%	0.8%	81%
OO 6221 SkyWest	COS 05:54	DFW 08:47	16%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 782 American Flight history →	COS 08:01	DFW 10:56	18%	6%	1.8%	92%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	COS 10:33	DFW 13:33	30%	10%	1.3%	71%
OO 6242 SkyWest	COS 13:36	DFW 16:38	30%	14%	0.7%	no record
AA 1697 American Flight history →	COS 10:44	DFW 13:36	30%	10%	1.3%	79%
AA 4956 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 17:15	DFW 20:19	32%	12%	0.7%	59%
AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 13:07	DFW 16:10	33%	13%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
OO 6234 SkyWest	COS 17:23	DFW 20:16	33%	13%	0.7%	no record
AA 1695 American Flight history →	COS 15:46	DFW 18:47	40%	10%	1.3%	49%
AA 1170 American Flight history →	COS 16:04	DFW 19:02	46%	13%	1.3%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON