Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:37 am at Colorado Springs); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 4745 COS 12:35 → LAS 13:36 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1227 COS 19:55 → LAS 20:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4745 Southwest	COS 12:35	LAS 13:36	18%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 1287 Southwest	COS 20:10	LAS 21:10	18%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 3257 Southwest Flight history →	COS 12:35	LAS 13:35	20%	4%	0.1%	62%
WN 1227 Southwest Flight history →	COS 19:55	LAS 20:55	21%	6%	0.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON