Today: UA 5790 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–28%.

Safest bet today UA 5790 COS 05:44 → ORD 09:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 4942 COS 12:59 → ORD 16:34 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5790 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 05:44	ORD 09:45	9%	5%	0.2%	91%
OO 5964 SkyWest	COS 08:15	ORD 12:02	15%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 1398 United Flight history →	COS 12:11	ORD 15:56	16%	6%	0.2%	78%
AA 4955 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 12:22	ORD 16:14	24%	9%	0.3%	60%
OO 4942 SkyWest	COS 12:59	ORD 16:34	28%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON