Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:07 pm at Columbia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 15:25, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	COU 15:25 → ORD 17:05UA 5869 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DEN 21:21UA 329	6h 56m	93%	75%
American Details →	COU 18:32 → ORD 20:23AA 3479 · flown by Envoy	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387	6h 45m	98%	72%
American Details →	COU 19:26 → DFW 21:20AA 3890 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → DEN 00:08 +1AA 2852	5h 42m	96%	64%
American Details →	COU 17:19 → DFW 19:14AA 3481 · flown by Envoy	3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:45 → DEN 23:50AA 662	7h 31m	95%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON