Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3525 COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3890 COU 19:26 → DFW 21:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3525 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 06:55	DFW 08:50	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 3478 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 11:45	DFW 13:38	15%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 3416 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 12:08	DFW 14:06	15%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 3481 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 17:19	DFW 19:14	16%	6%	0.8%	75%
MQ 3402 Envoy	COU 17:21	DFW 19:21	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3890 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 19:26	DFW 21:20	18%	6%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON