Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3479 COU 18:32 → ORD 20:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest G7 4179 COU 15:52 → ORD 16:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3479 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 18:32	ORD 20:23	15%	4%	0.4%	71%
MQ 3398 Envoy	COU 18:19	ORD 19:47	17%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 5869 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 15:25	ORD 17:05	20%	8%	0.6%	68%
G7 4179 GoJet	COU 15:52	ORD 16:58	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON