Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3169 CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest DL 3149 CVG 13:32 → ATL 15:06 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3169 Delta Flight history →	CVG 16:16	ATL 17:51	16%	3%	0.8%	69%
DL 3119 Delta Flight history →	CVG 19:59	ATL 21:43	16%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 2199 Delta Flight history →	CVG 20:03	ATL 21:49	16%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 720 Delta	CVG 15:00	ATL 16:43	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1008 Delta Flight history →	CVG 17:48	ATL 19:30	20%	3%	0.8%	79%
DL 1140 Delta Flight history →	CVG 14:32	ATL 16:05	21%	4%	0.9%	64%
DL 3149 Delta Flight history →	CVG 13:32	ATL 15:06	23%	5%	0.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON