Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: G4 401 at 15:25, 25%.

Safest bet today G4 401 CVG 15:25 → AUS 16:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time Riskiest WN 483 CVG 12:55 → AUS 14:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


G4 401 Allegiant Flight history →	CVG 15:25	AUS 16:59	25%	9%	0.6%	57%
WN 1303 Southwest	CVG 10:35	AUS 12:26	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
G4 414 Allegiant	CVG 08:00	AUS 09:54	25%	8%	1.4%	no record
WN 483 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 12:55	AUS 14:30	39%	7%	0.5%	78%worse than usual
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 08:10	AUS 09:50	10%	7%	0.9%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON