Today: WN 3349 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet today WN 3349 CVG 07:00 → BNA 07:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3624 CVG 18:55 → BNA 19:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3349 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 07:00	BNA 07:10	4%	1%	0.4%	96%
WN 4890 Southwest	CVG 07:05	BNA 07:22	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1297 Southwest	CVG 19:20	BNA 19:37	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3624 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 18:55	BNA 19:05	17%	4%	0.5%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON