Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:50 am at Hebron); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1301 Southwest	CVG 17:30	BWI 19:12	11%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 1247 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 15:50	BWI 17:15	14%	3%	0.4%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CVG 08:00 → MDW 08:05WN 3016	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 11:00 → BWI 13:58WN 2880	5h 58m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	7h 15m	98%	88%
American Details →	CVG 12:04 → ORD 12:36AA 3488 · flown by Envoy	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 14:44 → BWI 17:39AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	5h 35m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	CVG 18:55 → BNA 19:05WN 3624	2h 33m Nashville	BNA 21:38 → BWI 00:32 +1WN 499	5h 37m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	6h 43m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:39DL 2670	7h 23m	100%	82%
United Details →	CVG 11:17 → ORD 11:53UA 3485 · flown by Republic	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 15:21 → BWI 18:27UA 2737	7h 10m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 14:47 → BOS 17:10DL 5598 · flown by Republic	3h 25m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	7h 42m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CVG 13:56 → ORD 14:29UA 4746 · flown by SkyWest	52m Chicago	ORD 15:21 → BWI 18:27UA 2737	4h 31m	64%	53%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:25 → BOS 19:48DL 5789 · flown by Republic	47m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	5h 04m	51%	43%
Southwest Details →	CVG 08:00 → MDW 08:05WN 3016	50m Chicago	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355	3h 45m	9%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON