Today: AA 5202 at 13:48 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet today AA 5202 CVG 13:48 → CLT 15:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2911 CVG 17:29 → CLT 19:07 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5202 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 13:48	CLT 15:34	11%	4%	0.9%	80%
AA 2492 American Flight history →	CVG 09:12	CLT 10:48	12%	3%	1.0%	95%
AA 2967 American Flight history →	CVG 07:41	CLT 09:16	12%	3%	1.1%	91%
OH 5557 PSA	CVG 10:37	CLT 12:08	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3275 American	CVG 08:33	CLT 10:07	16%	4%	1.1%	no record
OH 5107 PSA	CVG 13:54	CLT 15:25	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
OH 5639 PSA	CVG 15:43	CLT 17:14	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
OH 5549 PSA	CVG 18:48	CLT 20:19	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2911 American Flight history →	CVG 17:29	CLT 19:07	29%	5%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON