Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4582 at 10:21 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day YX 4582 CVG 10:21 → DCA 12:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5199 CVG 17:07 → DCA 18:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4582 Republic	CVG 10:21	DCA 12:01	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5445 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 06:02	DCA 07:50	22%	6%	1.3%	76%
AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 11:12	DCA 12:59	28%	13%	0.9%	60%
AA 5199 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 17:07	DCA 18:53	30%	16%	0.9%	50%
DL 5229 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 07:00	DCA 08:33	21%	5%	1.4%	79%
DL 5221 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 12:35	DCA 14:04	38%	13%	1.2%	62%
DL 5134 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 17:10	DCA 18:46	46%	20%	4.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON