tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:17 pm at Hebron); 6 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:43, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 19:43 → MSP 20:41DL 703 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27DL 1705 5h 44m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → CVG 19:45 → IAD 21:26UA 3677 · flown by Republic 57m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 6h 45m 89% 76%
DeltaDetails → CVG 19:59 → ATL 21:43DL 3119 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956 6h 24m 91% 65%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 18:55 → BNA 19:05WN 3624 2h 45m Nashville BNA 21:50 → DEN 23:45WN 506 6h 50m 100% 62%
AmericanDetails → CVG 19:07 → ORD 19:59AA 6230 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Chicago ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387 7h 10m 89% 56%
AmericanDetails → CVG 20:01 → DFW 21:30AA 1728 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:56 → DEN 00:08 +1AA 2852 6h 07m 82% 42%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 19:07 → ORD 19:59AA 6230 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Chicago ORD 21:07 → DEN 23:02AA 2295 5h 55m 72% 48%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 20:25 → MDW 20:35WN 1251 50m Chicago MDW 21:25 → DEN 23:10WN 2770 4h 45m 62% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON