Today: AA 1056 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet today AA 1056 CVG 05:58 → DFW 07:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 665 CVG 19:33 → DFW 21:09 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1056 American	CVG 05:58	DFW 07:34	11%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 3157 American Flight history →	CVG 06:00	DFW 07:32	13%	4%	1.3%	79%
AA 807 American Flight history →	CVG 08:21	DFW 09:59	19%	6%	1.3%	83%
AA 2610 American Flight history →	CVG 11:48	DFW 13:25	25%	8%	1.2%	79%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	CVG 15:16	DFW 16:54	26%	5%	1.3%	75%
AA 3307 American Flight history →	CVG 13:58	DFW 15:28	27%	6%	1.6%	56%
F9 1757 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 10:57	DFW 12:45	29%	10%	2.2%	72%
AA 1713 American Flight history →	CVG 11:19	DFW 12:45	31%	7%	1.3%	83%worse than usual
AA 1728 American Flight history →	CVG 20:01	DFW 21:30	33%	6%	1.3%	41%
AA 665 American	CVG 19:33	DFW 21:09	34%	6%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON