Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2776 at 12:18 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2776 CVG 12:18 → FLL 14:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest F9 1047 CVG 12:19 → FLL 15:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2776 Delta Flight history →	CVG 12:18	FLL 14:54	9%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 661 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:53	FLL 18:27	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
G4 388 Allegiant Flight history →	CVG 06:30	FLL 08:59	15%	6%	1.2%	91%
G4 1990 Allegiant	CVG 14:09	FLL 16:47	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1047 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 12:19	FLL 15:05	23%	7%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON