Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Hebron); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: UA 3677 at 19:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops today


UA 3677 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 19:45	IAD 21:26	10%	3%	0.8%	75%
G7 4569 GoJet	CVG 19:47	IAD 21:18	23%	6%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CVG 18:12 → ORD 18:50UA 1813	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766	6h 33m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 53m	97%	71%
United Details →	CVG 15:29 → DEN 16:30UA 479	1h 30m Denver	DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408	8h 03m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	98%	67%
United Details →	CVG 17:00 → IAH 18:40UA 738	1h 34m Houston	IAH 20:14 → IAD 00:06 +1UA 1968	7h 06m	90%	63%
American Details →	CVG 17:29 → CLT 19:07AA 2911	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	6h 41m	95%	60%
United Details →	CVG 18:15 → EWR 20:24UA 3527 · flown by Republic	1h 26m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	5h 04m	93%	59%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	4h 47m	89%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CVG 18:12 → ORD 18:50UA 1813	53m Chicago	ORD 19:43 → IAD 22:35UA 304	4h 23m	64%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON