Today: UA 2442 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet today UA 2442 CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 738 CVG 17:00 → IAH 18:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2442 United Flight history →	CVG 06:35	IAH 08:11	10%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 534 United	CVG 17:09	IAH 18:53	28%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 738 United Flight history →	CVG 17:00	IAH 18:40	30%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 6367 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 11:52	IAH 13:29	14%	6%	1.3%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON