tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2915 Delta Flight history → CVG 07:16 LAS 08:16 8% 3% 0.6% 83%
F9 3521 Frontier Flight history → CVG 08:40 LAS 10:10 22% 9% 2.2% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 22m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:36UA 5618 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Chicago ORD 09:37 → LAS 11:35UA 2811 8h 35m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 37m Chicago ORD 11:11 → LAS 13:13UA 1803 9h 13m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 8h 10m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246 1h 06m Baltimore BWI 08:06 → LAS 10:24WN 860 7h 54m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 3489 · flown by Republic 1h 32m Dulles IAD 09:06 → LAS 11:17UA 1323 8h 17m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:45 → JFK 08:50DL 5044 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 10h 16m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 6h 57m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 11:19 → DFW 12:45AA 1713 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376 6h 09m 73% 48%
AmericanDetails → CVG 15:16 → DFW 16:56AA 3305 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:50 → LAS 18:42AA 884 6h 26m 65% 41%
AmericanDetails → CVG 18:25 → MIA 21:04AA 3487 · flown by Envoy 46m Miami MIA 21:50 → LAS 23:59AA 3076 8h 34m 59% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON