Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 511 at 08:26, 11%.

Safest bet that day DL 511 CVG 08:26 → MCO 10:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1750 CVG 21:30 → MCO 23:51 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 511 Delta Flight history →	CVG 08:26	MCO 10:30	11%	3%	1.3%	87%
F9 3624 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 07:15	MCO 09:32	16%	6%	1.9%	91%
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:58	MCO 18:23	20%	9%	2.7%	75%
WN 4393 Southwest	CVG 15:35	MCO 17:48	30%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 760 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 17:30	MCO 19:45	32%	9%	1.2%	65%
F9 1750 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 21:30	MCO 23:51	33%	14%	2.1%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON