Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1304 CVG 08:30 → MDW 08:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1251 CVG 20:25 → MDW 20:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1304 Southwest	CVG 08:30	MDW 08:55	8%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 3016 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 08:00	MDW 08:05	10%	2%	0.3%	98%
WN 290 Southwest	CVG 20:20	MDW 20:44	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1251 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 20:25	MDW 20:35	16%	4%	0.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON