Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3638 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3638 CVG 06:30 → MIA 09:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3487 CVG 18:25 → MIA 21:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3638 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:30	MIA 09:08	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 3554 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 13:16	MIA 16:02	22%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 3487 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 18:25	MIA 21:04	25%	5%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON