Today: DL 2752 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–21%.

Safest bet today DL 2752 CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3733 CVG 16:21 → MSP 17:27 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2752 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:09	MSP 07:05	5%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 3113 Delta Flight history →	CVG 16:30	MSP 17:32	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 954 Delta Flight history →	CVG 11:00	MSP 11:56	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 703 Delta Flight history →	CVG 19:43	MSP 20:41	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
OO 3733 SkyWest	CVG 16:21	MSP 17:27	21%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON